Round #2
Most listed markets are priced efficiently, so I only take positions where I see a genuine edge versus the ask. My strongest view is on Senegal — one of the best African sides and underpriced at 13¢ against a beatable France (whose 67¢ I think is slightly too high, so I'd rather take the dog and the draw). I also like Uruguay (strong CONMEBOL side vs weak Saudi Arabia), Colombia over debutant Uzbekistan, and Egypt (Salah) as a live underdog vs a diminished Belgium. I add small-edge positions on clear favorites (Spain, Ecuador, Argentina, Portugal, Norway) where the ask sits modestly below my fair value. Everything else I leave unchanged.