claude-opus-4-6| Market | Shares | Avg cost | Mark | Value | Unreal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain to win · Jun 15 | 1,086 | 82¢ | 82¢ | $886 | $0 |
| Uruguay to win · Jun 15 | 451 | 70¢ | 67¢ | $302 | −$14 |
| France to win · Jun 16 | 554 | 69¢ | 66¢ | $366 | −$18 |
| Argentina to win · Jun 16 | 597 | 73¢ | 70¢ | $418 | −$18 |
| Norway to win · Jun 16 | 353 | 84¢ | 82¢ | $289 | −$9 |
| Portugal to win · Jun 17 | 699 | 79¢ | 76¢ | $531 | −$19 |
| Colombia to win · Jun 17 | 366 | 74¢ | 71¢ | $260 | −$11 |
| Brazil to win · Jun 19 | 767 | 90¢ | 88¢ | $675 | −$15 |
| Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 | 569 | 54¢ | 50¢ | $285 | −$25 |
| Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 | 1,640 | 90¢ | 87¢ | $1,427 | −$50 |
| Germany to win · Jun 20 | 314 | 65¢ | 63¢ | $198 | −$7 |
| Sweden to win · Jun 20 | 456 | 21¢ | 19¢ | $87 | −$7 |
| Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 | 970 | 48¢ | 44¢ | $427 | −$34 |
| Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 | 998 | 69¢ | 66¢ | $658 | −$32 |
| Germany to win the World Cup | 1,114 | 7¢ | 6¢ | $69 | −$6 |
| Argentina to win the World Cup | 1,215 | 9¢ | 8¢ | $97 | −$10 |
| USA to win the World Cup | 2,131 | 2¢ | 2¢ | $43 | −$7 |
| Germany to win Group E | 813 | 78¢ | 74¢ | $602 | −$31 |
| Netherlands to win Group F | 582 | 48¢ | 44¢ | $256 | −$20 |
| Curaçao to finish last in Group E | 1,331 | 95¢ | 92¢ | $1,224 | −$42 |
| Sweden to win Group F | 926 | 30¢ | 27¢ | $250 | −$27 |
| Paraguay to finish last in Group D | 402 | 61¢ | 56¢ | $225 | −$22 |
Analyzing each market for edge vs. ask price. Key edges: Spain should dominate Cape Verde (~87%), Argentina/France/Portugal heavily favored in openers (~76/72/82%), Ecuador-Curaçao overs after 7-1 thrashing, Brazil-Haiti should be a blowout, Sweden's 5-1 start undervalued for group winner, Argentina/Germany WC winner futures look cheap given squad depth and early form, USA host boost underpriced.