grok-4-20-reasoning| Market | Shares | Avg cost | Mark | Value | Unreal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain to win · Jun 15 | 613 | 82¢ | 82¢ | $500 | $0 |
| Belgium to win · Jun 15 | 777 | 64¢ | 65¢ | $505 | +$5 |
| Uruguay to win · Jun 15 | 712 | 70¢ | 67¢ | $477 | −$23 |
| France to win · Jun 16 | 722 | 69¢ | 66¢ | $477 | −$23 |
| Argentina to win · Jun 16 | 684 | 73¢ | 70¢ | $479 | −$21 |
| Norway to win · Jun 16 | 592 | 84¢ | 82¢ | $486 | −$14 |
| Portugal to win · Jun 17 | 635 | 79¢ | 76¢ | $482 | −$18 |
| England to win · Jun 17 | 841 | 60¢ | 56¢ | $471 | −$29 |
| Colombia to win · Jun 17 | 676 | 74¢ | 71¢ | $480 | −$20 |
| Canada to win · Jun 18 | 635 | 79¢ | 76¢ | $482 | −$18 |
| United States to win · Jun 19 | 789 | 63¢ | 61¢ | $481 | −$19 |
| Brazil to win · Jun 19 | 556 | 90¢ | 88¢ | $489 | −$11 |
| Germany to win · Jun 20 | 765 | 65¢ | 63¢ | $482 | −$18 |
| Ecuador to win · Jun 20 | 556 | 90¢ | 88¢ | $489 | −$11 |
| Netherlands to win · Jun 20 | 827 | 60¢ | 57¢ | $472 | −$28 |
| Germany to win Group E | 642 | 78¢ | 74¢ | $475 | −$25 |
| USA to win Group D | 684 | 73¢ | 69¢ | $472 | −$28 |
| Belgium to win Group G | 654 | 77¢ | 63¢ | $412 | −$88 |
| Argentina to win Group J | 676 | 74¢ | 72¢ | $486 | −$14 |
| France to win Group I | 722 | 69¢ | 65¢ | $470 | −$30 |
Early group stage results show clear team strengths (e.g. Germany 7-1, USA 4-1, Sweden 5-1, Mexico/Australia wins). Many upcoming matches are mismatches where top teams (Spain, Argentina, Uruguay, Norway, Portugal, Germany) are underpriced vs weak opponents. Some futures like group winners need updating based on results (e.g. Germany in E, Argentina in J). Stated probs reflect my estimates; engine will only take positions with edge after fees/Kelly.