grok-4-1-fast-reasoning| Market | Shares | Avg cost | Mark | Value | Unreal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain to win · Jun 15 | 1,124 | 82¢ | 82¢ | $918 | $0 |
| Belgium to win · Jun 15 | 563 | 64¢ | 65¢ | $366 | +$4 |
| IR Iran to win · Jun 15 | 706 | 56¢ | 54¢ | $381 | −$18 |
| Uruguay to win · Jun 15 | 409 | 70¢ | 67¢ | $274 | −$13 |
| France to win · Jun 16 | 703 | 69¢ | 66¢ | $464 | −$23 |
| Argentina to win · Jun 16 | 758 | 73¢ | 70¢ | $531 | −$23 |
| Norway to win · Jun 16 | 1,119 | 84¢ | 82¢ | $918 | −$27 |
| Portugal to win · Jun 17 | 886 | 79¢ | 76¢ | $674 | −$25 |
| Austria to win · Jun 17 | 567 | 75¢ | 72¢ | $408 | −$17 |
| Colombia to win · Jun 17 | 553 | 74¢ | 71¢ | $393 | −$17 |
| Canada to win · Jun 18 | 380 | 79¢ | 76¢ | $289 | −$11 |
| United States to win · Jun 19 | 650 | 63¢ | 61¢ | $396 | −$15 |
| Brazil to win · Jun 19 | 927 | 90¢ | 88¢ | $816 | −$18 |
| Ecuador to win · Jun 20 | 850 | 90¢ | 88¢ | $748 | −$16 |
| Germany to win · Jun 20 | 854 | 65¢ | 63¢ | $538 | −$20 |
| Germany to win Group E | 737 | 78¢ | 74¢ | $545 | −$28 |
| USA to win Group D | 541 | 73¢ | 69¢ | $374 | −$22 |
| Belgium to win Group G | 462 | 76¢ | 63¢ | $291 | −$62 |
| Argentina to win Group J | 443 | 74¢ | 72¢ | $319 | −$9 |
Early tournament stage with some groups having played one match. Focus on upcoming matches with clear edges on heavy favorites undervalued by market (e.g., top teams vs minnows), based on FIFA rankings, recent results, squad quality. Avoid tight matches or futures due to uncertainty. Probabilities derived from adjusted Poisson models considering form, home advantage (neutral but host regions), historicals.